This Oscar season has been wild. Between Andrea Riseborough’s controversial nomination, All Quiet on the Western Front bursting onto the scene at the BAFTAs, and whatever’s going on in the Best Supporting Actress category, almost anything could happen tonight. The only thing we know for sure is that, against all odds, a weird little sci-fi comedy with butt plug jokes is going to sweep.

As usual, I’ve watched all of the Best Picture nominees with one exception that I just couldn’t make myself sit through–this year it was Avatar. It’s a three-hour white savior narrative! I just couldn’t do it, but I don’t think it would change any of my choices. Here are our picks for who will win, and who should win, in this crazy Oscar season.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Everything Everywhere All at Once is unstoppable. It’s won nearly every precursor, and inspired passionate fans in a way that no other movie this year has. As it should–I’ve loved a few other movies this year, especially Tár and The Banshees of Inisherin, but EEAAO will be the most original and exciting Best Picture winner since Parasite.

Snubs: Barbarian, Emily the Criminal, A Wounded Fawn

Best Director

Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field – Tár

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Will win: Daniels

Should win: Tár

The Daniels’ win is all but locked up, and they’ll be deserving winners–they built a complex multiverse with a unique visual style and boundless energy. But with Tár, Todd Field also pulled off a near-impossible feat: he crafted a nearly three-hour movie in which almost nothing happens, and yet I was on the edge of my seat the entire time. And by withholding key information about the #MeToo story at its center, he gave the story nuance without ever making excuses for abusers or tipping into a simplistic critique of “cancel culture.” It’s masterful.

Snubs: Lukas Dhont – Close, Zach Cregger – Barbarian, Charlotte Wells – Aftersun, Travis Stevens – A Wounded Fawn

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Michelle Yeoh

Should win: Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett

Best Actress has been a two-horse race for a while now, which makes sense, because either of these performances would have won easily in any other year. The performances are challenging in very different ways–Cate Blanchett commands the screen as Lydia Tár, creating a layered character with so much psychological realism, moviegoers thought she was a real person. Hers is the more traditional Oscar performance, but Michelle Yeoh was equally fantastic in Everything Everywhere All at Once, which required her to play many different versions of Evelyn while still maintaining an emotional arc. I can’t pick!

Also, shout-out to Viola Davis and especially Danielle Deadwyler, two deserving nominees who were most likely shut out by the controversial guerilla campaign for Andrea Riseborough. And a final shout-out to my favorite performance of the year: Mia Goth and her nine-minute monologue in Pearl. This was an amazing year for leading women!

Snubs: Mia Goth – Pearl, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal, Amber Midthunder – Prey, Jenna Ortega – The Fallout

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

Will win: Austin Butler

Should win: Colin Farrell

After an exciting Oscar season in which the three main contenders split the most important precursors–Colin Farrell and Austin Butler took the Golden Globes, Butler took the BAFTA, and just as everyone started to think he had the race locked up, Brendan Fraser won at SAG. So now it’s essentially between Fraser and Butler, and it honestly could go either way. Fraser was the early favorite, with a comeback narrative on his side, and God knows the Oscars love a physical transformation. Then again, the Oscars also love biopics, and Butler transformed so thoroughly into Elvis that he’s still talking like him. While it’s rare for an actor as young as Butler to win this race, I think he’s going to pull a Rami Malek tonight. Voters just don’t like The Whale as much as they like Elvis, and fair or not, that will most likely determine the outcome of this race.

As for who should win, I would actually be happy with any of them. Although I’m not the biggest fan of biopics, Butler’s performance was incredibly committed and transcended the usual imitation. Fraser’s tender, humanistic performance almost single-handedly saved The Whale from being mawkish misery porn, and he’s also just a lovely guy who’s easy to root for. But if I had to choose, I would pick Colin Farrell, whose subtle, nuanced portrayal of a dim man going through a friend breakup absolutely broke my heart.

Snubs: Eden Dambrine – Close

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau – The Whale

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis

Should win: Stephanie Hsu

This is by far the craziest, most unpredictable race this year. Even before the nominations, the category was thrown into disarray when Michelle Williams went lead for The Fabelmans, and now it’s almost anyone’s game. Angela Bassett had momentum for a while, but after Condon won the BAFTA and Curtis won SAG, any of them could win tonight. Bassett and Curtis both have “overdue” narratives going for them, but I think Curtis will most likely take it, since there’s so much momentum for EEAAO. Personally, I wish that momentum would translate into a win for Stephanie Hsu, who gave arguably the best performance in an amazing ensemble.

Snubs: Carey Mulligan – She Said, Mia Isaac – Not Okay, Noemie Merlant – Tár, Aimee Lou Wood – Living, Lashana Lynch – The Woman King, Sadie Sink – The Whale, Émilie Dequenne – Close

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Will win: Ke Huy Quan

Should win: Ke Huy Quan

This is the least suspenseful race of the night, as it should be. After leaving the industry because there weren’t enough roles for Asian actors, Ke Huy Quan has a genuinely moving comeback narrative, but the strength of his performance stands on its own.

Snubs: Gustav de Waele – Close, Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse, Justin Long – Barbarian

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should win: Women Talking

Most are predicting Women Talking for this prize, but I’m not so sure. I just don’t think there’s enough passion for Women Talking in general, and as we saw at the BAFTAs, international voters absolutely love All Quiet on the Western Front. Personally, I would give it to Glass Onion, which created a dizzying mystery while also making our entire theater laugh.

Snubs: Pearl

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin

While Tár and Everything Everywhere All at Once were more triumphs of direction than screenwriting, The Banshees of Inisherin is all about the dialogue. Martin McDonagh is a noted playwright, and it shows–the movie’s basically all conversation, and it crackles with wit and energy.

Snubs: Emily the Criminal, Barbarian, A Wounded Fawn, Not Okay

Best Original Song

“Applause” by Diane Warren – Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga and BloodPop – Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” by Rihanna – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” by M.M. Keeravaani – RRR

“This Is a Life” by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: “Naatu Naatu”

Should win: “Naatu Naatu”

RRR’s “Naatu Naatu” will get a deserved win, and it will be a blast to see it performed at the ceremony. But we’re diehard Swifties here at Adversion, and we were pretty sad to see that her haunting ballad “Carolina” wasn’t even nominated.

Snubs: “Carolina” by Taylor Swift – Where the Crawdads Sing, “While You Sleep” by Lennon and Maisy Stella – The Fallout